Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $120,198$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,321.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(112,321.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,988$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,784.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,784.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,746$ on 2020-05-17

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $149,435$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,679.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(144,679.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,140$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(538 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,127.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,127.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,333$ on 2020-05-17

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,617$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,409.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,409.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $272$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(47.3 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.7}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 26.2)}}\) (asimptote \(259.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,403$ on 2020-05-17

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,850$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(25.9 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $112$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{986.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(986.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,645$ on 2020-05-17

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,358$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,348.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,348.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $220$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(7.82 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(271.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,626$ on 2020-05-17

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $916$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{889.3}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(889.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(6.43 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 14.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $384$ on 2020-05-17

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,752$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(924 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,461.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(79,461.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $312$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(31.3 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(435.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,718$ on 2020-05-17

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,513$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,352.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13,352.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $824$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(87.2 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{857.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(857.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,054$ on 2020-05-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Taiwan* recovered 88%
Israel recovered 65%
Japan recovered 63%
Turkey recovered 56%
Malaysia recovered 53%
Georgia recovered 30%
Sri Lanka recovered 26%
Singapore recovered 10%
Kazakhstan recovered 10%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,054$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(5.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,588.7}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,588.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,638$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,613.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,613.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-17

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,065$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(5.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,504.3}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,504.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $263$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(65.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{261.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(261.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $898$ on 2020-05-17

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(103 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{433.2}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(433.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-17

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-05-17

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,285$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,477.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,477.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $744$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(34.9 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{895.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(895.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,388$ on 2020-05-17