Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $120,198$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,321.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(112,321.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,988$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,784.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,784.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,746$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $149,435$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,679.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(144,679.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,140$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(538 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,127.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,127.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,333$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,617$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,409.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,409.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $272$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(47.3 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.7}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 26.2)}}\) (asimptote \(259.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,403$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,850$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(25.9 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $112$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{986.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(986.6\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,645$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,358$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(332 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,348.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,348.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $220$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(7.82 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(271.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,626$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $916$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{889.3}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(889.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(6.43 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 14.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16.2\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $384$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,752$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(924 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,461.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(79,461.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $312$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(31.3 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(435.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,718$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,513$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,352.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13,352.4\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $824$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(87.2 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{857.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(857.5\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,054$ on 2020-05-17